Data => Information => Decisions
We have the tools and can capture the data to get a real answer to this question, but need to capture the right data.
First, I suggest adding a survey to the sign up process for new users and collect information on their current hardware and expected use. As we already capture their email, we could periodically (annually or prior to a new release) remind users to update their hardware profile, inform them of new releases and request their help with other periodic queries that can be used to improve the product (ie your device uses this driver, how do you like it?).
Second, when a user downloads product from trunk, and eventually the standard releases, we can track these downloads by IP address and date. Tracking by IP will allow us to develop a profile for an anonymous user of what product they have and additional functionality they want (packages). Tracking by date helps us understand the frequency they update their devices. (We make some assumptions that they use what they download, but it's better than nothing)
Data can be aggregated by device and package to build statistics on the most popular devices and packages. We will be able to understand how many users are moving from factory to LEDE as opposed to upgrading (new vs established users) and many more aspects of the products usage.
This data will help not only to understand who the actual user is, but how LEDE developers can focus their time, what devices can be sunset and prioritizing the wiki effort.
Data analytics will answer the question and guide LEDE to better focus on product and support. I am sure some will consider this a bit "big brother", but the reality is this is good business and does not need to compromise the security of any user.
Structuring this data collection now is important. I will suggest that it is critical for this to be in place prior to any production release, so that we can accurately track all the downloads. Currently we have about 100 users who have no choice but to use trunk. The first release will hopefully radically increase this number and will be the best opportunity to answer the question of Who and Why?.
Site analytics should be able to collect all the data, however I do not expect that it will offer the ability to analyze this in real time. The data will most likely need to be "warehoused" and periodically compiled offline.