I found a reference to kmod-nf-nathelper - which I have now installed. I no longer get the connection refused, but it seems to sit there as though firewalled now. Will dig further.
Logging in as anonymous ... Logged in!
==> SYST ... done. ==> PWD ... done.
==> TYPE I ... done. ==> CWD (1) somedir ... done.
==> SIZE somefile ... 16384
==> PASV ... (sat here)
I have this working now - I had to change the firewall on the machine with FTP also (even though that worked before using the ip_conntrack_ftp module also. I ended up forcing a passive port range and allowing connections from any source for it.
Confirm that ftp server on my dvr (that work in passive mode) did not worked for access from wan despite on port 21 was properly forwarded until I installed this packet.
With OpenWRT 15.05 - that worked from the box, but on LEDE 17.01.4 - NOT