Sysupgrade: backup fails with luci-ssl-nginx

I've run into puzzling problems with sysupgrade not being able to create the backup a few times now.

After adding luci-ssl-nginx to a build and flashing, sysupgrade fails with

Saving config files...
Failed to create the configuration backup.

Trying to manually tar up /etc/ leads to

tar: /etc/nginx/luci_nginx.conf: No such file or directory
tar: /etc/nginx/luci_nginx_ssl.conf: No such file or directory

They're on /rom/, but not in /etc/nginx/. I either have to touch or copy from /rom/ to get through sysupgrade.

Has anyone else seen this?

That seems odd, I wonder if it's because no files are being specified?

Bu then again, gnu tar seems to silently fail according to this post:

Perhaps this changed with busybox tar recently?