I've found the problem and it can be resolved prior to me deciding the best way to "fix" the upstream source.
What happens is that the OEM firmware has already taken over the root file system partition in a way that sysupgrade, right now, can't take it back. It can be resolved "by hand" using the command line (over SSH) relatively easily.
Step 1) Determine which partition you've booted into
root@test:~# cat /sys/devices/virtual/ubi/ubi0/mtd_num
11
If this is 11, then you will be working with 13 in the later steps, if it is 13, then use 11
Step 2) Connect the "other" firmware to a UBI device
root@test:~# ubiattach -m 13
UBI device number 1, total 680 LEBs (86343680 bytes, 82.3 MiB), available 0 LEBs (0 bytes), LEB size 126976 bytes (124.0 KiB)
If this does not say UBI device number 1
here, stop now and ask for clarification.
Step 3) Confirm that there is an OEM volume there that needs to be removed
root@test:~# ubinfo -d 1 -a
ubi1
Volumes count: 1
Logical eraseblock size: 126976 bytes, 124.0 KiB
Total amount of logical eraseblocks: 680 (86343680 bytes, 82.3 MiB)
Amount of available logical eraseblocks: 0 (0 bytes)
Maximum count of volumes 128
Count of bad physical eraseblocks: 0
Count of reserved physical eraseblocks: 40
Current maximum erase counter value: 1
Minimum input/output unit size: 2048 bytes
Character device major/minor: 246:0
Present volumes: 0
Volume ID: 0 (on ubi1)
Type: dynamic
Alignment: 1
Size: 636 LEBs (80756736 bytes, 77.0 MiB)
State: OK
Name: ubifs
Character device major/minor: 246:1
If is says Name: ubifs
then proceed. If not, recheck your steps, especially which partition you've booted into, and don't proceed if you aren't seeing Name: ubifs
Step 4) Remove the OEM ubifs
volume
root@test:~# ubirmvol /dev/ubi1 -N ubifs
You should be able to use sysupgrade now.
Patch submitted http://patchwork.ozlabs.org/patch/1116472/
Downloading https://gist.github.com/jeffsf/cd516fb84d0a46f1c3f9d49f2abea7ad and replacing /lib/upgrade/linksys.sh
with it should give you the effect of that patch on your local, running install.