If you use aliexpress, there shouldn't be any lottery for delivering to the EU. As long as the price (including shipping costs) is below 150 EUR, the platform (aliexpress) can, does -and must- display all prices including VAT, you can't order without them handling customs/ taxes and you will always pay the VAT, no lottery involved (anymore, since 2021-07-01). (the above does apply to .de, at least).
Only for prices above 150 EUR the platform can't do it for you anymore, in those cases prices are still displayed including VAT, but you'll get a 'price adjustment' when you checkout and actually only pay the price without taxes. In this case your local carrier has to handle customs/ taxation for you (and add their own fee for this, e.g. for DHL it would be 6 EUR, I think Fedex wants 35 EUR (unless you have an account with active credit card with them)). But given the prices for the OOo, this shouldn't apply here.