@daniel Here's another debug output.
How I got there. Started with stock fw 1.2.00.360516, and flashed v1.1.1 signed installer. From the signed installer, flashed a openwrt ubi snapshot from last week (can't remember which date). Configured openwrt like normal, and also set the scheduler to "performance" in rc.local. After a couple of days of everything going fine, I ran attended sysupgrade from luci, and ended up with a dead rt3200 (no leds).